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Poland Wont Send Troops To Belarus Or Ukraine Without Trumps Approval
Poland Wont Send Troops To Belarus Or Ukraine Without Trumps Approval
By
Trump is unlikely to extend Article 5 guarantees to Polish troops in Belarus and Ukraine, whod be attacked by Russia the moment that they intervene, so Lukashenkos fear of Poland attempting to annex those twos territory that it controlled during the interwar period isnt expected to materialize.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who was on Sunday for his seventh term, warned about Polands alleged territorial plans for his country and Ukraine. , Today you are eyeing western Belarus up to Minsk, you have already started talking about western Ukraine. You understand that you will not get an inch of territory from us. This is our territory. While Poland supports Ukraine against Russia and backs regime change in Belarus, its unlikely to send troops to either country.
Zelensky himself last week that the Europeans wont dispatch any peacekeepers to Ukraine like he during his speech at Davos unless the US approves, let alone unilaterally launch a conventional military intervention in his support while . Thats because Russia earlier threatened to target any unauthorized foreign troops that enter Ukraine, which one of its senior diplomats over the weekend amidst increased talk of this scenario.
Some Polish nationalists want to restore Warsaws Commonwealth-era control over parts of whats nowadays Belarus, Ukraine, and Lithuania, but theyre a fringe minority, and the state has always sought to establish a sphere of political and economic influence instead of annex their lands. This has been Polands policy since 1991 after it accepted its post-World War II eastern borders, which took the form of , the , the , and the .
The reasons were pragmatic since those modern-day countries historically indigenous Polish minorities were expelled and coerced to leave en masse after World War II. Additionally, Poland wanted to replicate interwar leader Jozef Pilsudskis Intermarium policy of creating a buffer zone of subordinated states between it and Russia, which failed at the time due to the territorial compromise that ended the Polish-Bolshevik War (partitioning Belarus and Ukraine) and over Vilnius.
Reviving territorial claims against those three and especially without any significant Polish minority on the ground to back them up except in Belarus (though many there are considered to be Sovietized Poles who want to remain under Minsks writ) would therefore once again ruin these plans. Polands hypothetical annexation of Western Ukraine would also radically reshape its demographics, lead to the inclusion of a large hostile minority within its borders, and spike the risk of returning.
Western Ukraine was one of the cradles of Polish Civilization after many military, political, and artistic leaders came from there since it was incorporated into Poland in the mid-1300s, but Kiev already gave Poles , so they can visit its historical sites without having to first annex them. The same goes for fellow EU member Lithuania and , which also granted Poles visa-free privileges too, albeit for a lesser duration (90 days in a calendar year instead of 180 total days).
The socio-cultural motivation for annexing those countries territories where Poles were historically indigenous for centuries prior to the end of World War II is therefore neutralized, which pairs with the aforementioned political-strategic arguments against this for making such a scenario very unlikely. The contemporary military situation also precludes Poland unilaterally launching a conventional military intervention since it would be crushed by Russia unless the US promised to defend it per Article 5.
Therein lies the primary obstacle to the annexation scenarios that Lukashenko warned about since Trump is unlikely to extend such guarantees to allies troops in third countries who deploy there without his permission since he doesnt want the US to get dragged into a war with Russia. This means that even if Polish-backed militants destabilize Belarus like the latter claimed that its plotting to do late last year as explained , it wont be able to follow up by sending in whats now .
For these reasons, while its true that Poland pursues the most aggressive and bad policy against Belarus exactly as Lukashenko said on Sunday, itll only send troops to there and/or Ukraine with Trumps approval but hes unlikely to greenlight this and Poland is even less likely to defy him. With this insight in mind, his remarks serve to raise awareness of the unconventional threat that Poland poses to Belarus and therefore by extension to Russia, but nobody should expect it to take a conventional form.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are authors own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.
#Belarus #DonaldTrump #Geopolitics #NATO #Poland #Russia #Ukraine #USA
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